Forecast notes for Central Oregon- Friday 8.14.26
Daily PM Thunderstorms- Some cells bring abundant lightning and gusty winds and many of us stay dry.
Thunderstorms Are Back- But Not Everyone Gets One
This week has been warm and smoky with some clouds and lets not forget Thursday's isolated PM thunderstorms. This unsettled weather pattern is not over yet. We are wrapping up this work week with scattered showers and some thunderstorms back in the forecast. Thunderstorm development will once again be very hit/miss this afternoon. But don't mistake this for a rainy Friday or a "thunderstorm outbreak". Many of us will stay dry, with the better storm opportunity Deschutes County, the Cascades and higher terrain, along with portions of Crook County. It will be a little more scattered than Thursday.
Temperatures remain comfortably warm for mid-August, and mostly in the 80s. Smoke also remains part of the picture, and where this smoke is the most dense will continue to shift around with changing winds and fire activity.
Weak mid-level forcing interacting with a modest increase in column moisture will support isolated convective development this afternoon, though forcing and instability remain marginal enough to keep coverage limited. Potential rain totals remain very low within forecast model guidance, suggesting any convection will be highly localized and potentially inefficient at producing meaningful wetting rainfall.
Temperatures have been running 5° warmer to 4° cooler than 24-hours ago, with afternoon highs mostly in the 80s and a few 70s/90s. This puts our high temperatures running in a pleasantly warm and near normal range (Average: Bend- 84/48 | Redmond 87/48) for mid August.
The Big Picture:
This shift in our weather pattern started yesterday. We have picked up just enough moisture and instability to bring thunderstorms back into the conversation today, but this is a very location-dependent setup. Most of Deschutes, parts of Crook and the higher elevations of Jefferson counties carry "better" and still low rain chances. That being said, some of us get wet and others stay dry while parts of Central Oregon catch a few sprinkles. For most of us, meaningful rainfall looks unlikely. Lightning and localized gusty winds are the bigger concern, especially considering how dry our landscape is in mid-August. Smoke adds another wildcard, with air quality potentially looking very different from one community to another as winds move smoke around the region. Perhaps the only good news to come out of thunderstorm gusts is that PM winds will help to clear some smoke out of our air.
Overhead, moisture availability is increasing modestly, yet the thermodynamic environment remains relatively dry through the lower and mid-levels. Afternoon dew points generally hold in the 40s while surface RH (relative humidity ) falls into the 20–30% range across the lower elevations. That combination favors relatively high cloud bases and limited precipitation efficiency with any convection that develops. Given the dry sub-cloud layer, evaporative cooling could also enhance localized downdrafts/outflow, making gusty and erratic winds a more meaningful impact near convection than basin-wide rainfall.
What’s Next?
Saturday gives us our last shot at a few storms for a while. Once again, rain/storm potential is not equal across the region- keeping the better opportunity closer to the Cascades and across southern and western portions of the area. Temperatures warm back into the mid-upper 80s, with afternoon northwest breezes becoming a little more noticeable.
By Sunday, the forecast becomes considerably calmer. Rain chances fade, sunshine becomes more dominant and temperatures pick up another couple of degrees. If you're looking for the least complicated outdoor day of the weekend, both will be pretty nice and Sunday will be seasonably warmer.
Let’s Take This Day by Day:
Friday- More clouds with lingering smoke and another round of some PM thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s with a South, becoming Northwest wind 5-15mph with gusts of 25+. Stronger gusts are expected around thunderstorms.
Tonight- Showers fizzle, winds taper and areas of smoke will bring poor air quality for much of Central Oregon. Lows in the 50s with some 40s and a gentle breeze.
Saturday- A little warmer with more PM clouds and winds becoming Breezy at times. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s with a few 90s. Expect lower rain chances with a few storms possible, again favoring areas closer to the Cascades and southern portions of the region. Southwest, becoming North wind 5-15mph with gusts of 25+.
Sunday- A mixture of sunshine and clouds with more warming and very low rain chances. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s with a few 90s. Storm chances largely disappear and winds remain breezy at times. Southwest, becoming North wind 2-12mph.
Monday & Tuesday- Monday stays warm in the mid-to-upper 80s before we shave a few degrees off Tuesday. There are very low shower chances in the broader region, but nothing pointing toward meaningful or widespread rain.
Extended Outlook:
A modest cooldown arrives early next week, with Monday's mid-to-upper 80s "cooling" into the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Nights turn cooler too, with more 40s for lows across Central Oregon. A few showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday, but there's still no strong signal for meaningful widespread rain.
The more interesting signal early next week is the increasingly dry air mass behind Tuesday's weak system. Dewpoints fall from the 40s into the upper 30s across portions of the High Desert Tuesday and Wednesday, while overnight temperatures respond by dropping well into the 40s. That favors larger day-to-night temperature swings and increasingly efficient nocturnal cooling. Meanwhile, precipitation probabilities remain disconnected from any meaningful rain- a good indication that Tuesday's (very low) shower potential is more likely tied to weak, transient forcing than the arrival of a deeper moisture plume or organized wet system.
Impacts:
For most of Central Oregon, this remains a very usable weekend forecast. The main things to watch are isolated thunderstorms today and Saturday, shifting smoke/air quality, and localized gusty winds. None of these impacts will be widespread, which means conditions could vary considerably depending on where you are. Lightning: Isolated thunderstorms are possible today and Saturday, with the better chances near the Cascades, southern Deschutes County and portions of Crook County. Any lightning is notable given how dry fuels are in mid-August and some of these cells could become capable of abundant lightning.
Gusty Outflow Winds- Even storms producing little rainfall can generate localized gusty and erratic (variable) winds. These could extend well beyond the immediate storm and briefly change smoke movement or fire behavior.
Fire Weather- A widespread critical fire-weather setup is not apparent, but isolated lightning combined with limited wetting rainfall creates a localized concern for new fire starts. Thunderstorm outflows could also complicate existing fire behavior.
Smoke & Air Quality- Smoke remains highly variable across the region. Afternoon mixing and shifting winds may improve conditions in some locations while moving thicker smoke into others. Overnight stabilization may allow smoke to settle back into valleys and lowest elevations.
Outdoor Plans- No reason to cancel the weekend. If you're headed into the Cascades, higher terrain or southern parts of the region today or Saturday, keep an eye on developing clouds and be prepared to adjust plans if thunderstorms develop. Sunday remains the quieter option.
Final Thoughts:
This isn't a dramatic pattern change, but at least the atmosphere is finally giving us something besides heat and smoke to talk about. Today and Saturday carry an isolated storm chance, most of us stay dry, and Sunday turns sunnier and warmer.
So keep the weekend plans, and keep an eye on the sky. If you're hoping for enough rain to wash away the smoke and give our dry landscape a good soaking... this probably isn't the right setup.
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