The Big Picture:
This shift in our weather pattern started yesterday. We have picked up just enough moisture and instability to bring thunderstorms back into the conversation today, but this is a very location-dependent setup. Most of Deschutes, parts of Crook and the higher elevations of Jefferson counties carry "better" and still low rain chances. That being said, some of us get wet and others stay dry while parts of Central Oregon catch a few sprinkles. For most of us, meaningful rainfall looks unlikely. Lightning and localized gusty winds are the bigger concern, especially considering how dry our landscape is in mid-August. Smoke adds another wildcard, with air quality potentially looking very different from one community to another as winds move smoke around the region. Perhaps the only good news to come out of thunderstorm gusts is that PM winds will help to clear some smoke out of our air.

Overhead, moisture availability is increasing modestly, yet the thermodynamic environment remains relatively dry through the lower and mid-levels. Afternoon dew points generally hold in the 40s while surface RH (relative humidity ) falls into the 20–30% range across the lower elevations. That combination favors relatively high cloud bases and limited precipitation efficiency with any convection that develops. Given the dry sub-cloud layer, evaporative cooling could also enhance localized downdrafts/outflow, making gusty and erratic winds a more meaningful impact near convection than basin-wide rainfall.

What’s Next?
Saturday gives us our last shot at a few storms for a while. Once again, rain/storm potential is not equal across the region- keeping the better opportunity closer to the Cascades and across southern and western portions of the area. Temperatures warm back into the mid-upper 80s, with afternoon northwest breezes becoming a little more noticeable.

By Sunday, the forecast becomes considerably calmer. Rain chances fade, sunshine becomes more dominant and temperatures pick up another couple of degrees. If you're looking for the least complicated outdoor day of the weekend, both will be pretty nice and Sunday will be seasonably warmer.

Let’s Take This Day by Day:
Friday- More clouds with lingering smoke and another round of some PM thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s with a South, becoming Northwest wind 5-15mph with gusts of 25+. Stronger gusts are expected around thunderstorms.

Tonight- Showers fizzle, winds taper and areas of smoke will bring poor air quality for much of Central Oregon. Lows in the 50s with some 40s and a gentle breeze.

Saturday- A little warmer with more PM clouds and winds becoming Breezy at times. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s with a few 90s. Expect lower rain chances with a few storms possible, again favoring areas closer to the Cascades and southern portions of the region. Southwest, becoming North wind 5-15mph with gusts of 25+.

Sunday- A mixture of sunshine and clouds with more warming and very low rain chances. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s with a few 90s. Storm chances largely disappear and winds remain breezy at times. Southwest, becoming North wind 2-12mph.

Monday & Tuesday- Monday stays warm in the mid-to-upper 80s before we shave a few degrees off Tuesday. There are very low shower chances in the broader region, but nothing pointing toward meaningful or widespread rain.

Extended Outlook:
A modest cooldown arrives early next week, with Monday's mid-to-upper 80s "cooling" into the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Nights turn cooler too, with more 40s for lows across Central Oregon. A few showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday, but there's still no strong signal for meaningful widespread rain.

The more interesting signal early next week is the increasingly dry air mass behind Tuesday's weak system. Dewpoints fall from the 40s into the upper 30s across portions of the High Desert Tuesday and Wednesday, while overnight temperatures respond by dropping well into the 40s. That favors larger day-to-night temperature swings and increasingly efficient nocturnal cooling. Meanwhile, precipitation probabilities remain disconnected from any meaningful rain- a good indication that Tuesday's (very low) shower potential is more likely tied to weak, transient forcing than the arrival of a deeper moisture plume or organized wet system.

Impacts:
For most of Central Oregon, this remains a very usable weekend forecast. The main things to watch are isolated thunderstorms today and Saturday, shifting smoke/air quality, and localized gusty winds. None of these impacts will be widespread, which means conditions could vary considerably depending on where you are. Lightning: Isolated thunderstorms are possible today and Saturday, with the better chances near the Cascades, southern Deschutes County and portions of Crook County. Any lightning is notable given how dry fuels are in mid-August and some of these cells could become capable of abundant lightning.

Gusty Outflow Winds- Even storms producing little rainfall can generate localized gusty and erratic (variable) winds. These could extend well beyond the immediate storm and briefly change smoke movement or fire behavior.

Fire Weather- A widespread critical fire-weather setup is not apparent, but isolated lightning combined with limited wetting rainfall creates a localized concern for new fire starts. Thunderstorm outflows could also complicate existing fire behavior.

Smoke & Air Quality- Smoke remains highly variable across the region. Afternoon mixing and shifting winds may improve conditions in some locations while moving thicker smoke into others. Overnight stabilization may allow smoke to settle back into valleys and lowest elevations.

Outdoor Plans- No reason to cancel the weekend. If you're headed into the Cascades, higher terrain or southern parts of the region today or Saturday, keep an eye on developing clouds and be prepared to adjust plans if thunderstorms develop. Sunday remains the quieter option.

Final Thoughts:
This isn't a dramatic pattern change, but at least the atmosphere is finally giving us something besides heat and smoke to talk about. Today and Saturday carry an isolated storm chance, most of us stay dry, and Sunday turns sunnier and warmer.

So keep the weekend plans, and keep an eye on the sky. If you're hoping for enough rain to wash away the smoke and give our dry landscape a good soaking... this probably isn't the right setup.

Join us tonight for your full & most reliable forecast on Central Oregon Daily News on ABC at 5, 6 & 11pm and on CBS at 5, 6,7 & 11.

Good news to lead with: Highway 26 is fully reopened between Prineville and Mitchell as of 9am yesterday, closing the book on nearly three weeks of off/on closures and pilot cars tied to Rowe Creek Complex and Shingle Fire. Crews and ODOT will keep working the corridor, so slow down and give them room. Rowe Creek itself is still big and active — 373,777 acres, 79% contained — with 107 miles of uncontained line and Red Flag conditions, similar to what pushed fire behavior yesterday.

Elsewhere, same tale of two Oregons as yesterday. North & West of us, Grasshopper ticked up by 3,320 acres, still 20% contained, with six homes and 15 outbuildings confirmed lost — a community meeting was held last night in Dufur. Austin Fire near Mt. Hood jumped the Clackamas River, growing by nearly 1,300 acres. In Klamath County, Wrights Spring reached its first real containment at 6% (-529 acres) after firefighter Jason Ensign was killed on the line last week — Gov. Kotek ordered flags to half-staff. Two Wrights Spring briefings are set for today at 5pm and 7pm.

Evacuation centers still open:

-East Side Church (Crook)– 3174 NE 3rd Street, Prineville OR 97754 (Red Cross shelter, Rowe Creek Complex)
-Chiloquin Elementary School (Klamath)– 548 South 2nd Ave, Chiloquin OR 97624 (Red Cross shelter, Wrights Spring Fire)
-Living Springs Fellowship (Klamath)– 31897 Mission Street, Bonanza OR 97623 (Red Cross shelter, Wrights Spring Fire)
-Klamath County Fairgrounds (Klamath)– 3531 South 6th St, Klamath Falls OR 97603 (large-animal shelter, horses only)
-The Dalles Middle School (Wasco)– 1100 East 12th St, The Dalles OR 97058 (Evacuation Shelter, Grasshopper Fire)
-Sherman County Fairgrounds (Sherman)– 66147 Lone Rock Rd, Moro OR 97039 (Large Animals, per Wasco Co. Sheriff’s Office)

Note: No shelter yet for Austin Fire (Clackamas Co.) — mostly campsites/trailheads, not residences. Check evacuation map below; zones remain fluid on Wrights Spring and Grasshopper.

Road closures:

-US-26, Prineville to Mitchell: Fully reopened 9am Thursday. Suppression traffic active — don’t stop on the highway.
-Forest Road 46 (Austin Fire): Closed between FR 63 and FR 466, plus FR 5720 and FR 5710.
-Highway 35 (Grasshopper Fire): Reopened Thursday after hazard-tree removal and mop-up. Flip-flopped open/closed all week — expect crews near the road and possible intermittent closures.
-Black Canyon Wilderness, Ochoco NF & Crooked River National Grassland: Emergency closures remain in effect.
-Umatilla National Forest (Bologna Fire): FSR 24, Tamarack Cabin and Lookout remain closed.
-OR-218 (Hay Creek Complex): Reopened; use caution.
-In Klamath County- Sprague River Rd from 9mile Rd to Hwy140- Use caution while traveling in the area.

For anything else: tripcheck.com

Lets work this, Fire-by-fire:

Rowe Creek Complex: 373,777 acres, 79% contained, ~1,600 personnel. 107 miles uncontained line, 30,000 acres uncontrolled ground. Dry-lightning forecast Thursday raised concern about new ignitions.

#GrasshopperFire: 86,939 acres, 20% contained. Growth slowed to ~1,500 acres overnight. Six homes/15 outbuildings lost; assessments continue. Multiple evacuation notices, Levels 3, 2 & 1 for Hood River & Wasco Counties and Level-1 notices for Clackamas county.

#WrightsSpringFire: 53,060 acres, 6% contained — first real containment. Structure protection continues around Yonna Woods, Bly Mountain, Swan Lake. There is a series of multiple evacuation notices (Levels 3, 2 & 1) along 140 and north of Bonanza (from Keno Springs Rd) to hwy 858 - Sprague River rd.

#AustinFire: 2,017 acres, 0% contained, jumped the Clackamas River the other night. Level 3 remains, mostly impacting recreation sites.

#BenchFire- 67,080 ac (86% contained), #RoundButteFire- 1,163 ac (98% contained), #AkawaButteFire- 27,491 ac (99% contained): final-update status (most recent updates 5-8 days ago — all Evacuations lifted with continued closures in place thr Crooked River National Grassland.

#HenryFire- 29,888 ac (97% contained), #CoyoteFire- 17,459 ac (88% contained), #ShingleFire- 73,179 ac (82% contained) a single Level-1 evacuation notice remains in Wheeler County.

#HiddenForestFire: fully out, 100% contained. Hay Creek Complex: 100% contained, all evacuations lifted. This is my final report that will contain details on these two fires.

Grant County: #BolognaFire- 4,772 ac (53% contained) with a pair of with a pair of Level-2 evacuation notices east of Spray. #CottonwoodFire- 722 ac (88% contained) with a series of Levels 2 & 1 evacuations, North of Dayville & East of US395. #LittleBearFire- 67 ac (55% contained) with a pair of Level-1 evacuations north of John Day. #SalmonFire- 1,433 ac (90% contained). #OliveButteFire- 3,092 ac (94% contained). Level-2 evacuation notices are still in place around the Grant/Baker County line near the last two fires.

Burns Basin: All but one 6/7 of the major fires are past 90% contained with zero evacuation notices in place through Harney & Malheur Counties— #ColemanCreekFire (Harney/Malheur)- 308,721 ac (90% contained), #SecondFlatFire- 105,501 ac (90%), #BaldMountainFire- 76,463 ac (93% contained), #JackassButteFire- 24,724 ac (92% contained). #StubbleFire- 15,673 ac (93% contained). #EgyptFire 4,553 ac (82% contained). #BigGrassFire (Malheur, OR & Owyhee, ID) 582,225 ac (54% contained) current hotspots are mostly burning in Idaho.

Bottom line: today’s headlines are a good news/bad news situation. Yesterday’s thunderstorms sparked more than a dozen small fires that did not get out of control and the full reopening of US-26. Meanwhile, Friday brings another risk of thunderstorms with round 2 of red flag conditions in/around Central ORegon. Also, Rowe Creek still has a lot of uncontained line. Bigger concerns remain north and west — Grasshopper’s lost homes, the uncontained Austin Fire, Wrights Spring’s tough week.

All evacuation zones and fire data: Oregon’s RAPTOR page https://arcg.is/K8Lb8
Road closures: tripcheck.com
Air Quality: https://fire.airnow.gov/#8.67/44.1225/-120.9896

The Big Picture:
Here's the mechanism worth understanding: the ground-level air across Central Oregon has stayed bone-dry for weeks, while moisture has been building higher up in the atmosphere as this system arrives. When a raindrop falls out of a storm cloud into that dry layer near the surface, it evaporates before it ever reaches the ground- a process called virga. The lightning still happens up in the cloud, but the rain that would normally accompany it doesn't always land. That combination -real electrical activity, minimal rainfall- is the textbook recipe for dry lightning. It spells bad news for fire weather concerns and for anyone in the agriculture community. It's the single biggest reason fire danger is rated extreme today rather than just elevated.

A second variable worth flagging: today's storms are being fed by two disturbances arriving back-to-back rather than one system passing through. The first is already moving out to our northeast, but a second pulse of energy is dropping in right behind it, riding the same broader dip in the jet stream. That's why the risk of thunderstorms persists through Friday and Saturday instead of fading after one afternoon- it's a sustained pattern, not a single event.

Bottom Line: Thunderstorms are possible, some of us get a little wet, some of us only catch some sprinkles and parts of the High Desert stay dry through the entire event. Winds will become gusty around any thunderstorms and I will be tracking all showers for thunderstorm potential through the next few days.

The Alerts that are in effect right now-

Red Flag Warning — issued Wednesday afternoon, in effect until 9 PM this evening for most of Central Oregon. Surface fuels are critically dry and any lightning could lead to new fire ignitions. Any fires that start are likely to spread rapidly critically dry conditions and the gusty outflow winds expected around thunderstorms.

An Air Quality Alert remains in effect for parts of Central Oregon, mainly during the morning and evening hours rather than each afternoon. I am expecting additional Red Flag Warnings for Friday and Saturday as this pattern continues.

The science behind our thunderstorm risk:
Here's the mechanism worth understanding: the ground-level air across Central Oregon has stayed bone-dry for weeks, while moisture has been building higher up in the atmosphere as this system arrives. When a raindrop falls out of a storm cloud into that dry layer near the surface, it evaporates before it ever reaches the ground- a process called virga. The lightning still happens up in the cloud, but the rain that would normally accompany it doesn't always land. That combination -real electrical activity, minimal rainfall- is the textbook recipe for dry lightning. It's bad news for fire weather concerns and for anyone in the agriculture community, and it's the single biggest reason fire danger is rated extreme today rather than just elevated.

A second variable worth flagging: today's storms are being fed by two disturbances arriving back-to-back rather than one system passing through. The first is already moving out to our northeast, but a second pulse of energy is dropping in right behind it. That's why the risk of thunderstorms persists through Friday and Saturday instead of fading after one afternoon- This is a sustained pattern, not a single event.

Bottom line: thunderstorms are possible, some of us get a little wet, some of us only catch sprinkles, and parts of the High Desert stay dry through the entire event. Winds will become gusty around any thunderstorm, and I'll be tracking every shower for thunderstorm potential through the next few days.

What's Next?
Storms this afternoon will be scattered and very hit-or-miss, favoring higher terrain first as mountain slopes heat faster than the open desert floor. Friday brings a step up, with measurable rainfall now showing up in model guidance alongside the lightning risk — meaning some storms may finally produce enough rain to offset their own fire danger. Saturday keeps a similar setup in play, though slightly less organized than Friday's.

Let's Take This Day by Day:
Today (Thursday)- Some smoke, more PM clouds, warm. Highs in the 80s with a few 70s and 90s. Storm development is hit-or-miss, with dry thunderstorms and gusty winds possible. South, becoming northwest wind 5-15 mph with gusts of 25+.

Tonight- Temperatures fall quickly with fewer clouds. Lows in the 40s and 50s, tapering winds. Areas of smoke return.

Friday-Another afternoon to watch. Highs in the 80s with a few 90s, and a better thunderstorm threat develops through the afternoon and evening. Lightning is the primary concern given how dry surface fuels remain. Gusts of 25+.

Saturday- The unsettled pattern holds, with highs reaching further into the 80s and continued shower/thunderstorm potential, slightly less organized than Friday's. Southwest, becoming northwest wind 10-20 mph with gusts of 30+.

Sunday- Warming takes shape, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and some 90s. Shower chances remain in play but at reduced coverage compared to Friday/Saturday.

Safety & Recreation:
If you're hiking, camping, or recreating on higher terrain today or over the next few days: watch for tall, vertically-developed cumulus clouds building rapidly, especially by midday/afternoon- that's often the first sign lightning is imminent. If you see that developing overhead, it is time to turn around seek shelter immediately. Stay especially alert in forests with heavy overgrowth, downed trees, or dry vegetation. Report any new fire starts by calling 911 right away.

Extended Outlook:
Monday looks similar to Sunday, with warm afternoons and a lingering low-end shower chance. The bigger change arrives Tuesday and Wednesday, when drier, cooler air works back into the region — a signal this active stretch is temporary, not a shift into monsoon season. Beyond that, next week's setup depends on whether a low pressure system out in the Pacific stays offshore or drifts closer to the coast; either way, additional moisture will favor the mountains over the lower elevations most of us call home.

Impacts:
Dry lightning is the primary threat today through Saturday. Storms can produce dangerous lightning with little to no rain reaching the ground

Fire danger is rated extreme; surface fuels remain critically dry heading into this stretch

Friday brings the first real chance of measurable rainfall alongside the lightning risk

Gusty, erratic winds accompany storm activity each afternoon, adding to fire spread concern

A cooler, drier pattern returns by the middle of next week, ending this active stretch

Final Thoughts:
The science behind today's warnings comes down to one imbalance: plenty of energy and moisture building overhead, but almost none of it at ground level. That gap is what turns a chance for showers into a fire-weather concern, and it's why this stretch through Saturday deserves real attention even on days when the rain gauge barely moves.

We'll be tracking every development through the weekend — check back for updates as conditions change.

Watching closely: RH (Relative Humidity %) recovered well on Rowe Creek overnight (as high as 75%), and crews are using that window to push mop-up along US-26 toward reopening it. As of 9:07am tripcheck.com showed US-26 between mileposts 29-49 is open with an estimated delay of 20 minutes and a caution comment to “Watch for areas of low visibility” with a fire in the area. Grasshopper is the opposite story — its NE/E flanks pushed into Hix and Elliott Roads yesterday, and containment slipped from the weekend’s 23%. A Grasshopper community meeting is planned for today in Wasco County (Thursday 8/13 at | Time/location TBA).

Evacuation centers still open:

-East Side Church (Crook)– 3174 NE 3rd Street, Prineville OR 97754 (Red Cross shelter, Rowe Creek Complex)

-Chiloquin Elementary School (Klamath)– 548 South 2nd Ave, Chiloquin OR 97624 (Red Cross shelter, Wrights Spring Fire)

-Living Springs Fellowship (Klamath)– 31897 Mission Street, Bonanza OR 97623 (Red Cross shelter, Wrights Spring Fire)

-Klamath County Fairgrounds (Klamath)– 3531 South 6th St, Klamath Falls OR 97603 (large-animal shelter, horses only; cattle via Southern Oregon Emergency Aid, 831-235-3031)

-The Dalles Middle School (Wasco)– 1100 East 12th St, The Dalles OR 97058 (Evacuation Shelter, Grasshopper Fire)

-Sherman County Fairgrounds (Sherman)– 66147 Lone Rock Rd, Moro OR 97039 (Large Animals, per Wasco County Sheriff’s Office)

Note: No shelter yet for Austin Fire (Clackamas Co.) — that order mostly hits campsites/trailheads, not residences. Check county maps below before directing anyone to a site; zones are moving fast on Wrights Spring and Grasshopper.

Road closures:

-US-26 (Rowe Creek Complex): Opened with delays between Prineville & Mitchell MP 29–49. Crews worked with ODOT through the night clearing hazard trees and hot spots.
-Forest Road 46 (Austin Fire): Closed between FR 63 and FR 466, plus FR 5720 and FR 5710.
-Black Canyon Wilderness, Ochoco NF & Crooked River National Grassland: Emergency closures remain in effect.
-OR-218 (Hay Creek Complex): Reopened; use caution, equipment still moving through.
For anything else: tripcheck.com

Here is where the region’s fires stand as of the most recent updates:

Rowe Creek Complex (Crook/Jefferson/Wheeler): 373,777 acres (79% contained) with 1,612 personnel. Overnight RH recovery and lighter winds let crews directly engage the fire’s edge, including near last year’s Marks Creek scar. Jefferson County reduced evacuation statuses in some areas. A public meeting 6pm Thursday at Barnes Butte Elementary, Prineville (livestreamed at facebook.com/rowecreekcomplex).

#GrasshopperFire (Wasco/Hood River/Clackamas): 85,179 acres; containment slipped to 20% after an active 24 hours along the NE/E flanks, which advanced to Hix and Elliott Roads. Level 1–3 notices active across all three counties. Timberline Lodge/Government Camp under Level-1 evacuation notice; Mt. Hood Meadows under Level-3 evacuation notice.

#WrightsSpringFire (Klamath County): 53,060 acres, first containment reached overnight at 6%, burning near Modoc Point and Sprague River. Crews held the north end, worked 1119 Road and Bliss Road. Zones keep shifting — check the current map, not yesterday’s levels.

#AustinFire (Clackamas County): newer fire now at 1,430 acres, 0% contained, on steep terrain north of FR-46. Level-3 “Go Now” in effect, mostly hitting campgrounds/recreation sites. Nearby Mitchell (~16 ac) and Narrows (~1.5 ac) are largely contained.

Bench, Round Butte, and Akawa Butte fires (Jefferson/Deschutes/CTWS) remain in final-update status: #BenchFire 67,080 acres (86% contained), #RoundButteFire 1,163 acres (90% contained), #AkawaButteFire 27,491 acres (99% contained). Evacuations lifted on all three; area closures remain during patrol.

Shingle, Coyote, and Henry fires (Crook/Wheeler), now under a Georgia Forestry Commission team: #HenryFire 29,889 acres (97% contained), #CoyoteFire 17,459 acres (88% contained), Shingle 73,179 acres (86% contained). Level-1 evacuation notice remains in Shingle’s SE corner in Wheeler County; Level 1–2 remains around Dayville in Grant County. Otherwise, all evacuation notices for these 3 fires have been lifted.

#HiddenForestFire: fully out, 100% contained, no evacuation zones remaining and it was dropped from the WatchDuty map.

Hay Creek Complex (Gilliam/Sherman/Wasco): 100% contained, all evacuations lifted and dropped from the WatchDuty map.

Grant County: #BolognaFire 4,772 acres (42% contained), evacuations/closures active; #CottonwoodFire 722 acres (77%); #LittleBearFire grew to 86 acres, Level-1 zones. #OliveButteFire (3,092 ac | 94% contained) and #SalmonFire (1,433 ac | 90% contained) issued final updates 8/8 and are off the active list. However, a series of Level-2 “Be Set” evacuation notices remains in effect for this area, East of Sumpter near the North Fork- John Day Wilderness- Greenhorn Unit.

Burns Basin (Harney/Malheur): all four major fires are at/past 90% contained, no active evacuations — #ColemanCreekFire 308,721 acres (90%), #SecondFlatFire 105,501 acres (90%), #BaldMountainFire 76,463 acres (93%), #JackassButteFire 24,724 acres (92%), all in mop-up/suppression-repair mode.

Bottom line: Central Oregon is trending the right way. With Rowe Creek’s US-26 reopening, the things to watch this week are still the Grasshopper, Austin, Row Creek Complex and Wrights Spring fires. The bigger concerns are North and South of us.

All evacuation zones and fire data: Oregon’s RAPTOR page https://arcg.is/K8Lb8
Road closures: tripcheck.com
Air Quality: https://fire.airnow.gov/#8.67/44.1225/-120.9896

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Central Oregon today from 1pm to 9pm. A push of monsoonal moisture brings thunderstorm potential to the region- starting this afternoon/evening, and dry surface & air means rainfall totals will be limited while lightning risk rises. If you're spending time outdoors this afternoon, know the warning window and have a plan.

Otherwise, today started with more smoke in the air. It will be pleasantly warm with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Winds stay light and smoke continues lingering- mainly through the morning and evening hours with better visibility likely midday. Temperatures are running a few degrees below seasonal averages for mid-August, consistent with the cooler pattern that's settled in since Tuesday.

This afternoon's thunderstorm potential is a preview of what's ahead: the Friday/Saturday stretch brings the month's first real shower chances. Our pattern will continue to, building toward Saturday, which currently looks like the best shot at meaningful rain or an isolated storm as a heating trend takes shape.

Join Central Oregon Daily News tonight on ABC at 5, 6, and 11, and on CBS at 5, 6, 7, and 11 for the full forecast.

The driver behind today’s shift is a weak disturbance riding in on newly-turned southwesterly flow aloft, tracking in from near Vancouver Island. That’s a genuine pattern change, not just a lucky break in the weather pattern. This shift will open the door for monsoonal moisture to flow into the Pacific Northwest, eventually setting the stage for Friday/Saturday rain potential.

Temperatures have been running 1° to 6° cooler than 24-hours ago, with afternoon highs mostly in the 80s. This puts our high temperatures running near/below seasonal ranges (Average: Bend- 84/49 | Redmond 87/48) for mid August.

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for most of Central Oregon and will be in effect from 1pm-9pm Thursday. A push of monsoonal moisture will bring thunderstorm potential to the region for Thursday/Friday. Lingering dry surface air will limit rain totals while boosting and already increased risk of lightning.

The Big Picture:

Under a broad ridge of high pressure our wind pattern (that has been keeping afternoons breezy the past few days) is easing up, with today and tomorrow evenings both looking notably calmer than what we’ve seen recently. Smoke is still part of the picture, tending to show up more in the mornings and evenings rather than during peak afternoon hours. Through the rest of this week, the atmosphere starts trending toward something different by Friday- a pattern shift that brings real (yet still modest) chances for showers and low thunderstorm risk into the weekend, especially Saturday and Sunday.

The pressure gradient behind today’s (Cascade) gap winds is running about 4-6 millibars between the Portland and The Dalles station- that’s the actual number defining how “breezy” today gets. The disturbance riding through Central Oregon is also a distinct, separate feature from the winds. In fact, our wind pattern through the end of this week is a surface-level mechanical response- while the rain chances trace back to what’s happening several thousand feet aloft.

What’s Next?

Today and tomorrow stay dry, mild, and calmer on the (for winds) than earlier this week. Friday nudges temperatures up slightly and introduces the first real rain chances of the stretch. That probability of precipitation grows into the weekend, with Saturday looking like the best shot at seeing some actual rain or a rumble of thunder, before things quiet back down early next week.

Overnight into Thursday, the main disturbance moves out, but it leaves behind just enough leftover moisture in the mid-atmosphere to keep a slim shower chance alive over higher terrain- even though the surface-level trigger is gone. That’s an unusual setup for Central Oregon- precipitation potential without an obvious storm system driving it, just lingering moisture and instability aloft.

Let’s Take This Day by Day:

Today (Wednesday)- Sunshine continues with some PM clouds and our modest cooldown. Highs will be mostly in the 80s. Winds stay at a light breeze and breezy at times across Central Oregon- a nice change of pace. Smoke may thicken up again this evening, so don’t be surprised if visibility drops a bit after sunset. Southwest, becoming North wind 5-15mph with gusts of 25+.

Tonight- Few clouds and temperatures fall quickly. Lows in the 40s with tapering winds. North, becoming Southwest wind 0-5mph.

Thursday- Another mild, mostly sunny day with another modest cooldown. Winds stay light and smoke lingers- particularly in the AM and evening hours. Southwest, becoming Northwest wind 5-15mph with gusts of 20+.

Friday- Temperatures nudge up slightly into the mid 80s, and this is the day the pattern starts to change. Expect the first real shower chance of the stretch, even if it is only brings low potential. South, becoming Northwest wind 5-15mph with gusts of 20+.

Saturday- This is the one to watch. Saturday carries the best shot at actual rain or an isolated thunderstorm this week. Highs warm into the mid-to-upper 80s, with shower potential building through the afternoon. South, becoming Northwest wind 5-15mph and breezy at times.

Extended Outlook:

Friday is the start of our next heating trend. Highs warm into the mid-upper 80s by Sunday/Monday with a chance for some showers and a few thunderstorms. That chance builds through the weekend. We are only looking at scattered showers with some thunderstorms. Most of Central Oregon will only receive some sprinkles or brief rain, at best. Sunday still carries some shower potential before things dry back out Monday, and shower chances tick back up again by Tuesday. Temperatures stay warm throughout with some ups and downs before more cooling into next week.

Beyond Saturday, forecasters are watching two competing possibilities that would both produce similar weather but for different reasons- either a strong storm system parking offshore or a weaker disturbance passing through. Both are given roughly equal odds through the beginning of next week- which is a specific way of saying “we know the general trend, not the exact mechanism yet.”

Impacts:

Winds ease up a bit today and tomorrow after a breezier stretch- a welcome break coupled with modest cooling.

Smoke continues to drift in and out, mainly mornings and evenings.

First real shower and thunderstorm chances of the week arrive Friday, building into the weekend.

Saturday looks like the best shot at actual rain- still not a sure thing, but worth watching.

Warm, dry pattern holds otherwise, with UV staying high through the clearer afternoons.

Final Thoughts:

Today is the calm before some very small changes. Winds finally take a brief-breather, and by the weekend, we might actually see something other than sunshine/smoke in the forecast. Nothing dramatic, but after a run of dry, breezy days, even a modest rain chance is worth mentioning.

Join us tonight for your full & most reliable forecast on Central Oregon Daily News on ABC at 5, 6 & 11pm and on CBS at 5, 6,7 & 11.

Where things still need watching: containment lines on Rowe Creek held overnight, but many miles of line remain uncontrolled with real potential for spread over rough terrain. Meanwhile RH (relative humidity %) is forecast to dip into the high teens today. Crews there are working toward reopening the full length of US-26. Harney/Malheur County’s Coleman Creek and Second Flat fire crews are in mop-up mode. Two newer starts -Grasshopper & Austin fires- (see below) are putting most of this smoke in the air as they continue to spread and burn hot.

Evacuation centers still open:

-East Side Church (Crook)- 3174 NE 3rd Street, Prineville OR 97754 (Red Cross Emergency Shelter, serving the Rowe Creek Complex)
-Living Springs Fellowship (Klamath)- 31897 Mission Street, Bonanza OR 97623 (Red Cross evacuation shelter- East of Klamath Falls)
-Klamath County Fairgrounds (Klamath)- 3531 South 6th St, Klamath Falls OR 97603 (large animal shelter- horses)
-Chiloquin Elementary School (Klamath)- 548 South 2nd Ave, Chiloquin OR 97624 (Red Cross evacuation shelter)
-The Dalles Middle School (Wasco)- 1100 East 12th St, The Dalles Oregon 97058 (Evacuation Shelter)
-Sherman County Fairgrounds (Sherman)- 66147 Lone Rock Rd, Moro OR 97039 (Large Animals- per Wasco County Sheriff’s Office)

Note: With evacuations lifted around the Hay Creek Complex and the Bench/Round Butte/Akawa Butte fires now well into final-update status, the large-animal sites, companion-animal shelter, and additional Red Cross sites listed in last week’s report (Sisters, Redmond, Madras, Warm Springs, Maupin, Crane) are no longer confirmed open. Check the county evacuation maps below before directing anyone to a specific site.

Road closures:

-US-26 (Rowe Creek Complex): Closed from milepost 29 to milepost 49 — a further reduction from Monday’s closure as crews work to reopen the corridor. Increased fire traffic reported in closed sections; stay out for your own safety and the crews’.

-Black Canyon Wilderness, Ochoco National Forest & Crooked River National Grassland: Emergency closures remain in effect.

-OR-218 (Hay Creek Complex): Reopened; firefighting equipment still moving through the area, so continue to use caution.

For anything else: tripcheck.com

Here’s where the region’s fires stand as of the most recent updates:

The Rowe Creek Complex (Crook/Jefferson/Wheeler) is at 373,5401 acres and 78% contained with 1,699 personnel on site. Fire activity moderated overnight. Higher RH recoveries and lighter winds allowed crews to actively engage the fire’s edge in multiple locations. Today, crews will directly engage the fire with favorable weather conditions and an expected decrease in fire activity. Crews are directly engaging the fire near the #MarksCreekFire scar from last year. A public meeting is set for 6pm Thursday at Barnes Butte Elementary School in Prineville (livestreamed at facebook.com/rowecreekcomplex).

The Grasshopper Fire is now 83,619 acres (20% contained) and is still burning hot along the North & West flanks. The main fire brakes in these areas are OR-35 NF-44, Dufur Valley Road (north). The main breech along this line is along NF-44 near OR-35 where hotspots have been active (detected via satellite imagery) within a Level-2 “Be Ready” evacuation. Levels 3, 2 & 1 evacuation notices are in place for portions of Wasco/Hood River Counties, in and around the fire perimeter. During the last 24 hours, fire activity has been impacting homes and other structures in the Northeast portion of the fire.

The Wrights Spring Fire is now 52,531 acres and 5% contained with multiple Level-3, Level-2 and Level-1 evacuation notices in place as well as (at last check) 3 evacuation shelters. The latest perimeter expansion puts this fire (as well as satellite derived hotspots) much further to the West & NW, including areas of the map that were downgraded to Level-1 & Level-2 notices. These are expiring/old hotspots over an updated evacuation notice map. Most of the recent fire activity has been along the southern flank of the footprint.

The Austin Fire is 718 acres (0% containment reported). A Level-3 “Go Now” evacuation notice was issued Monday 8/10 (along with a smaller Level-1 notice along and north of Timothy Lake Rd/NF-57 and East of FR-58. These are the latest updates for this fire, in Mt Hood NF.

The Bench Fire (Jefferson County/CTWS) sits at 67,080 acres and 86% contained . Thursday’s report (8/9) was the final daily update — command transitioned to local resources and Warm Springs partners on Monday. No fire growth, though interior pockets are still smoldering and producing smoke in the western portion of the fire. Evacuations there were lifted, though area closures remain in place.

The Round Butte Fire (Jefferson County) held at 1,163 acres and 90% contained in its final update. Structure specialists are doing follow-up patrols within the perimeter; no growth reported. Evacuations there were lifted, though area closures remain in place.

The Akawa Butte Fire (Jefferson/Deschutes) reached 99% containment on 27,491 acres before issuing its final update, with command handed to a local Type 4 organization. Evacuations there were lifted, though area closures remain in place.

Shingle, Coyote, and Henry fires (Crook/Wheeler) are now on a less frequent update schedule as containment grows: Henry is 29,889 acres (97% contained), Coyote is 17,448 acres (89% contained), and Shingle is 73,020 acres (86% contained). A Level 1 “Get Ready” evacuation remains active near the fire’s southeast corner in Wheeler County; the rest of the (Wheeler/Crook) evacuation zones are no longer in place. There is still a series of Level-1 and Level-2 evacuation zones in/around Dayville (Grant).

The Hidden Forest Fire, a smaller 296-acre fire under investigation for cause, is 100% contained with no evacuation zones in place.

Good news out of Gilliam/Sherman/Wasco counties: the Hay Creek Complex has reached 100% containment. All evacuation orders tied to the complex have been lifted.

Within Grant County, a handful of fires still have Level-2 and Level-1 evacuation notices in place. Bologna Fire is 4,743 acres (36% contained), Cottonwood Fire is 722 acres (71% contained), Little Bear Fire is 63 acres with no containment reported, Olive Butte Fire is 3,092 acres (94% contained) & the Salmon fire is 1,433 acres (94% contained).

In the Burns Basin (Harney/Malheur), the Coleman Creek Fire is at 308,721 acres (80% contained). The primary focus for crews is on fire suppression repairs with no new smoke reports or increased fire behavior. The Second Flat Fire is at 105,501 acres (90% contained). Still also in mop-up, patrol, and suppression-repair mode, with crews identifying hotspots to extinguish and grading/rehabbing Shumway Road, Lone Pine Road, and Hines Logging Road. Two additional, smaller fires — Jackass Butte (24,724 acres | 92% contained) and Bald Mountain 76,463 | 93% contained) are now included in the same Burns Basin update rotation; both are also in mop-up/suppression-repair status as well.

Bottom line for today: the region has turned a real corner — four fires have gone to final updates in the last week and the Hay Creek Complex is fully wrapped. Rowe Creek Complex remains the one to watch, given the mileage of uncontrolled line and the ongoing US-26 closure.

All evacuation zones and fire data: Oregon’s RAPTOR page https://arcg.is/K8Lb8

County evacuation maps: Crook County (protect.genasys.com), Jefferson County (tinyurl.com/bdz88ufn), Wasco County (perimetermap.com/wascocounty-or), Gilliam/Wasco/Wheeler/Sherman (arcg.is/1eXyLP4)

Road closures: tripcheck.com

Open the windows while you can. It’s a cool, clear start across the High Desert this morning. For most of Central Oregon, we have good air quality, outside of a few smoky pockets, including Prineville.

We’re finally shaving a few degrees off the heat today. Highs settle into the low-to-mid 80s, with a few 70s mixed in. for Wed/Thu. Sunshine sticks around, but so does the afternoon breeze- northwest gusts could push up to 20-30 mph this afternoon.

Smoke isn’t gone, but it should be a little less in our faces through most of today. And it will be moved around with a light breeze. The better chance for poor air quality north and east of Bend.

Thursday is the coolest day of this week, with 70s and low 80s. Enjoy it, because the thermostat starts creeping back up Friday, putting us in the mid-to-upper 80s this weekend and potentially near 90° Sunday.

And there’s finally something different on the horizon: Friday/Saturday could bring enough moisture for some showers or a few thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain. Not a promise yet, but definitely worth watching.

For now: two cooler days, some afternoon wind, smoke still wandering around. Then summer turns the heat back up to wrap up the work week.

Central Oregon stays warm and dry this week. Expect some in/out clouds on top of wildfire smoke and afternoon winds will become breezy for many of us. Wildfire smoke will continue to impact our air quality with very dry days ahead. Some not so good news: There is no real rain in our forecast except for the low chance of some stray showers early next week.

Satellite and upper-air data show mostly straight west-to-east flow overhead today, which is the main reason for no real dynamic change- no fronts, no significant instability, just a breezy pressure difference across the Cascades pushing wind through the gaps. That same flat pattern starts to buckle by midweek as upper-level winds shift out of the southwest and the atmosphere trends toward a more active, thunderstorm-possible (high elevations only) setup by the weekend.

Temperatures have been running 1° cooler to 3° warmer than 24-hours ago, with afternoon highs mostly in the 80s and a few 90s. This puts our high temperatures running in a seasonably warm range (Average: Bend- 85/49 | Redmond 88/48) for early August.

The Big Picture:

Think of high pressure as the anchor holding our weather pattern in place this week- it’s parked overhead and it isn’t budging. This pattern is exactly why we’re not seeing storm systems sneak in. That same setup is also why smoke from nearby wildfires (and those in Washington) keeps drifting into our air instead of clearing out. The pattern eases up just enough by the weekend to nudge temperatures a little higher, but don’t expect any big shakeup in the weather story either way.

Right now there’s a pressure difference of a few millibars between the west side and east side of the Cascades, and that gradient is what’s driving today’s gap winds- air gets funneled and speeds up as it squeezes through mountain passes, similar to how water speeds up through a narrow section of a river. I am specifically keep this in mind where PM winds and low humidity could briefly overlap into fire-weather territory, though the chance of that happening stays under 40 percent. Meanwhile, upper-level winds are expected to shift and strengthen out of the southwest through the rest of the week. That is the type of setup that we meteorologists watch for when a pattern is about to flip from dry and stable to a bit unsettled with low rain chances.

What’s Next?

Today is the transition day, and it comes with a bit of a wind twist this evening- more on that below. From there, expect a brief dip in temperatures Wednesday/Thursday. By Friday/Saturday, expect a steady & gradual warmup through the weekend. Smoke and haze linger into midweek before slowly thinning out.

The atmosphere is basically in a holding pattern today, but that changes starting Wednesday. As upper-level winds shift southwesterly and the broader pattern amplifies by Friday and Saturday, temperatures rebound. By Sunday and Monday, there’s a real chance (40-60 percent) that a deep low pressure system parks offshore and pulls in enough moisture to support the potential for some showers and a risk of isolated thunderstorms. If that shapes up, we may be looking at Fire Weather Watches (or Red Flag Warnings) given the lightning risk that could potentially come with it.

Let’s Take This Day by Day:

Today (Tuesday)- Few clouds and warm with smoke in the sky- also reducing visibility off and on. Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s with some 90s, no rain in sight and another breezy afternoon. Expect a South, becoming Northwest wind 5-15mph with gusts of 25+ mph.

Tonight- Expect some light clouds with more smoke and temperatures drop quickly- like they normally do out here in the high desert. Lows in the 40s with some 50s with tapering winds. Northwest, becoming South wind 0-5mph.

Wednesday- Plenty of sunshine again, with smoke moving around but starting to feel a little less thick. Highs in the low-mid 80s. This brief dip in temperatures will come with very dry conditions and a breezy afternoon. South, becoming Northwest wind 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph.

Thursday- The pattern starts to shift a bit with our “cooldown” bottoming out and some PM clouds. Central Oregon stays dry with PM winds becoming breezy at times. Highs in the low 80s with a few 70s and a Southwest, becoming North wind 2-12mph.

Friday- Warmer with more smoke and additional PM clouds. Highs well into the 80s and a little breezy at times.

Extended Outlook:

This weekend will be similar to Friday. A warming trend will bring highs into the mid-to-upper 80s with low rain chances over higher terrain. Sunday and Monday are the days to really keep your eyes on. Forecast model guidance shows a real shot at an offshore storm system tapping into monsoonal moisture, which could mean some thunderstorm potential. Our heating trend also peaks here. Highs in the mid-upper 80s with some 90s and afternoon winds becoming breezy under more clouds.

The weekend is when our weather pattern actually starts doing something. Saturday remains under the same general influence as Friday, with temperatures peaking in the mid-to-upper 80s. Sunday into Monday is the part of the forecast with the most going on upstream. Model guidance suggests an offshore low pressure system pulling in more moisture, which is the kind of setup that can nudge the pattern toward something less stable. That’s still a lower-confidence piece of the outlook this far out, so it’s more of a “pattern to watch” than a firm call. Temperatures also top out here before any potential shift.

Impacts:

Smoke lingers through midweek, cutting visibility at times- check air quality before heavy outdoor exertion

Gusty evening winds during the next few days, up near 25 mph.

After a brief/midweek dip in temperatures, a steady warmup builds through the weekend.

Rain stays essentially off the table all week, with only a slim chance creeping in early next week.

High UV each afternoon even with the haze overhead- sunscreen still matters

Final Thoughts:

This is a pretty low-drama week weather-wise. Expect seasonal warmth, dry days and smoke in the air. Winds will become breezy at times. The bigger trend to watch is the weekend warmup, especially where highs creep closer to 90 by Sunday with no real rain in sight. There is only a slight suggestion of thunderstorm potential Sunday/Monday as high pressure begins to flatten.

Join us tonight for your full & most reliable forecast on Central Oregon Daily News on ABC at 5, 6 & 11pm and on CBS at 5, 6,7 & 11.

The heat hasn’t broken yet. Today brings more near-record heat, PM winds becoming breezy at times and critically low humidity. Expect forecast highs in the mid-upper 90s with some triple digits and PM relative humidity (%) bottoming out in the teens with some single digits. Conditions stay hot, dry and breezy for Central Oregon. There is a real chance of Red Flag conditions developing again this weekend. The good news out of this week: crews across multiple fires used the seasonably warm stretch earlier this week to lock in solid, lasting containment gains, and a few of the region’s longest-running fires are effectively wrapped up.

Two new starts to note this week: the small Mud Springs Fire (Jefferson County, near Gateway) has already had forward progress stopped and is in mop-up, while the Wrights Spring Fire in Klamath County continues to grow and now has notices in place — more on both below.

Evacuation centers still open across the region:

Sky Hawk Ranch – 6287 NE 33rd Street, Redmond OR 97756 (Large Animals)
Eastside Church – 3174 NE 3rd Street, Prineville OR 97754 (Evacuation Shelter)
Humane Society Of The Ochocos – 1280 Tom McCall Road, Prineville OR 97754 (Companion Animal Shelter)
St. Patrick Catholic Church – 341 SW J Street, Madras OR 97741 (Red Cross Emergency Shelter)
Maupin High School – 699 4th St, Maupin OR 97037 (Wasco – Evacuation Shelter)

Road closures:

US-26, east of Prineville (Rowe Creek Complex): Still closed, mileposts roughly 32–66, between Prineville and Mitchell. This remains an extended hard closure for firefighting operations — emergency personnel only, with no reopening timeline yet given. Check tripcheck.com immediately before traveling.

Black Canyon Wilderness, Ochoco National Forest & Crooked River National Grassland: Emergency closures remain in effect.

John Day Fossil Beds National Monument: Units remain closed.

Mt. Hood National Forest (Grasshopper Fire): A forest closure covers the Barlow and Hood River Ranger Districts — numerous forest roads and trails closed through year’s end pending updates. The Mount Hood corridor from Rhododendron through Government Camp remains under a Level 1 “Be Ready” notice.

OR-35 is closed because of this same fire between MP 62-74 for both lanes between Bennett Pass Snow Park and Baseline Rd.

Fire-by-fire rundown:

Rowe Creek Complex (Crook/Jefferson/Wheeler/Wasco) — Still the region’s largest fire at 344,834 acres (64% contained). Command has fully transitioned to Southwest Incident Management Team 2 following the Oregon State Fire Marshal Blue Team’s demobilization. Crews continue to hold the line along US-26 and FSR 500, mopping up recent burnout operations and working the breach near Cherry Creek. Structure groups remain active around Mill, Marks, Hamilton and Mill Creeks.

Bench Fire (Jefferson County/Warm Springs Reservation) — 67,080 acres (84% contained). All Warm Springs evacuation notices have been lifted. Crews are mopping up and chasing remaining hot spots around the perimeter. The remaining active fire zones are along the western flank of the fire perimeter.

Round Butte Fire (west of Madras & WNW of Metolius) — Up to 90% contained at 1,163 acres. Minimal-to-moderate fire behavior continues within the perimeter; expect ongoing smoke as unburned fuel inside the lines finishes burning off. Level-1 evacuation notices remain in effect for areas in/around the fire perimeter.

Henry Fire — 29,889 acres (97%) contained. Holding within its footprint; crews don’t expect further spread and continue mop-up.

Coyote Fire — 17,448 acres (89%) contained. Same story as Henry — holding, mop-up focused. All evacuation notices for both (Coyote & Henry) fires have been lifted.

Shingle Fire (Wheeler/Grant/Crook) — 73,050 acres (53% contained). Crews are extending containment lines deeper into the interior along Highway 26 and around Kangaroo Basin and Cougar Ridge. The southern flank has seen increased fire intensity and spotting in the hot, dry conditions, and crews are using tactical firing operations to secure that edge over the next few days. Dayville remains in a Level-2 evacuation notice.

Akawa Butte Fire — 27,491 acres (99% Contained). Central Oregon Fire Info issued its final report on this fire Wednesday morning; evacuation orders for both Jefferson and Deschutes counties were lifted August 3. Recreation closures in the burned area remain in place for safety.

Hay Creek Complex (Wasco/Gilliam/Sherman/Wheeler) — 200,292 acres, 98% contained. Essentially wrapped up and handed off to local authorities for ongoing patrol.

Coleman Creek Fire (Burns Basin) — 309,645 acres (76% contained). Crews continue containment, mop-up and perimeter validation as priorities, working to hold the fire south of Highway 20. This fire’s hotspots are fewer and further between. Evacuation notices are mostly in effect for portions of Malhur County, along and South of US-20.

Second Flat Fire (Burns Basin) — 105,464 acres (77% contained). “Seek and destroy” hotspot missions continue along the perimeter; activity along the Highway 20 corridor, Willow Flats and Skull Creek has stayed relatively quiet. A series of Level 1, 2 and 3 notices remains active around Burns and Hines.

Grasshopper Fire (Wasco/Hood River/Clackamas, near Mt. Hood) — 48,281 acres (23% contained). This one continues to be a top watch item — it’s pushed close enough to the Mount Hood corridor to prompt Level 3 evacuations at Mt. Hood Meadows and Level 1 notices from Rhododendron through Government Camp in Clackamas County. A forest closure covers affected areas of Mt. Hood National Forest and OR-35 is closed in the area.

Wrights Spring Fire (Klamath County) — New this week and still growing: now estimated at 8,722 acres. It started east of Modoc Point, between Upper Klamath Lake and the Bootleg Fire scar. Firefighters are making progress on the east flank with burnout operations, though the north and south sides remain difficult in steep, timbered terrain. Level-1 & Level-2 evacuation notices are in place for multiple zones in the area; no closures reported at this time, though the public is asked to avoid FS Roads 5813, 5817 and 22 due to fire traffic.

Mud Springs Fire is 81 acres with no containment reported for northJefferson County, near Gateway. This was a new start yesterday. Containment lines are complete and forward progress has stopped; crews are in mop-up.

Bottom line for today: real, sustained progress continues to define this week — Bench Fire evacuations fully lifted, Akawa Butte in the books, Rowe Creek holding above 60%, and Hay Creek essentially finished. US-26 east of Prineville remains the closure to track most closely, with no reopening timeline yet. Keep an eye on the weekend forecast — critically low humidity and breezy afternoons raise the chance of Red Flag conditions returning, even without a major wind event or lightning.

All evacuation zones and fire data: Oregon’s RAPTOR page https://arcg.is/K8Lb8

Road closures: tripcheck.com | Oregon OEM: oralert.gov

Air Quality: https://fire.airnow.gov/#8.67/44.1225/-120.9896

Today and Saturday mark the last two days of this heat stretch before Central Oregon finally starts heading back toward more seasonable August weather. Temperatures this afternoon will once again climb into the mid and upper 90s, with a few 100s. Yesterday felt hot & today won’t give us much of a break.

But this forecast is about more than the thermometer.

Wildfire smoke continues to pour into the region, and an Air Quality Alert remains in effect. This isn’t the kind of smoke that mixes out by afternoon- it’s being transported into Central Oregon by the larger weather pattern, meaning air quality could deteriorate quickly and remain poor well into tonight… again.

Friday brings an identical forecast to Thursday- another hot afternoon, smoky skies, critically dry air, and elevated fire danger. Afternoon humidity will drop into the teens and even single digits, while northwest breezes keep smoke circulating across the High Desert.

Then… the pattern finally changes.

Saturday begins a steady (modest) cooling trend that carries through the weekend and into next week. Highs ease back into the low 90s this weekend before settling into the 80s by early next week. There isn’t any rain in sight, so fire danger remains high, but simply knocking 10 to 15 degrees off our afternoon highs will make a noticeable difference.

What You Need to Know

• 🌡️ Today remains very hot, with highs in the upper 90s and isolated 100s.

• 😷 Smoke continues to impact air quality and may be just as significant as the heat.

• 🔥 Critically dry conditions keep fire danger elevated.

• ⬇️ Saturday begins a genuine cooldown that lasts into next week.

Our weekend headlines are about getting through the heat and smoke. After that, Central Oregon finally gets a taste of the August weather we’ve been waiting for.

Forecast model guidance shows today’s temperatures topping out well above average- decreasing modestly Friday before a marked “cooling trend” begins Saturday with a ridge of high pressure weakening rather than any systems moving through the region. We will also remain critically dry with RH (Relative Humidity %) minima of 10-15% during peak heating hours with some single digits, combined with observation coding of “K” (smoke for the NWS forecast), confirms sustained smoke that remains independent of the diurnal heating cycle. To be clear, this is advected smoke, not local haze burning off with daytime mixing.

Temperatures have been running 5° to 12° warmer than 24-hours ago, with afternoon highs mostly in the 90s and a few 100s. This puts our high temperatures running in an unseasonably hot range (Average: Bend- 85/50 | Redmond 89/49) for early August.

The Big Picture:

High pressure’s holding strong over the region, and you can feel it with bone-dry air, single-digit-to-teens humidity through the afternoon and skies that would be crystal clear if not for the smoke from nearby wildfires. That northwest wind pattern building through the afternoons is the same flow steering the smoke our way, so don’t expect it to clear out fast. This is a stubborn setup, and it’s going to take a few days to fully unwind across all of Central Oregon.

The forecast data shows highs holding in the upper 90s today and tomorrow before dropping several degrees Saturday/Sunday. This marks a real, measurable shift, not just a feel-good number. Humidity is sitting in the low teens both afternoons, and smoke is showing up consistently in the observation data around the clock, not just during peak heat. That tells us this smoke isn’t burning off with the afternoon sun or being moved very far with PM winds- it’s being fed in steadily from outside the area.

Winds are following a predictable daily rhythm: light out of the north overnight, shifting toward the southwest by early afternoon, then swinging back to the northwest by evening. That back-and-forth pattern is exactly what steers smoke into the region and then holds it there. It is the same wind flow bringing in wildfire smoke from nearby fires (including Washington), not just local haze building up and clearing away each day.

What’s Next?

Get ready for zero rain changes through this weekend and all of next week. We will have few clouds with some PM breezes and extremely dry conditions. We are primed for critical fire danger. Any fires that start (or are active) are likely to spread rapidly. Our lower elevations still have some PM heating to go before topping out, then a nice, clean drop overnight under few clouds and lingering smoke. Tomorrow’s going to feel like a rerun across the region. Expect the same heat, same smoke, same story.

Temperatures are still going to heat through the early afternoon before topping out, and overnight humidity recovery is happening because of clear skies letting heat radiate away fast, not because any new moisture is moving in. It’s a dry pattern through and through, even with that humidity swing.

Let’s Take This Day by Day:

Tonight- Mild, few clouds, tapering winds and more smoke. Lows in the 60s with some 50s and a Northwest, becoming South wind 0-5mph. Times of poor air quality will be as bad as hazardous for many.

Friday- More of today, across Central Oregon. Upper 90s with some triple digits, and breezy PM winds that will swing around to the northwest, becoming gusty at times. The air quality alert isn’t going anywhere either- treat tomorrow with the same respect as today. South, becoming NW wind 5-15mph with gusts up to 25.

Saturday- This is where our pattern starts to turn. We cool modestly, from the 90s/100s- into the low 90s. It’s going to feel noticeably better region-wide even if the number doesn’t move that much. Winds stay light and swing around to the North, 5-15mph with gusts of 25+.

Sunday- Heat continues to ease across the High Desert. Expect mid to upper 80s, under few clouds and very dry.

Monday- Mid-upper 80s continue across Central Oregon with few clouds, no rain in sight and the potential for more smoke. It will be a completely different week than the one we’re finishing. Highs in the 80s with a few 90s and a light breeze.

Extended Outlook:

The “cooldown” puts our highs in a seasonable range and it will keep rolling right through next week. Mid-80s become the norm Tuesday and Wednesday, across the Pacific Northwest. Expect overnight lows to cool into the low 50s. No rain shows up anywhere in the extended outlook either. So, while the heat’s backing off, we’re staying critically dry and breezy at times across Deschutes, Jefferson, and Crook counties the entire stretch.

Our biggest change will be “cooling” and moisture levels will also tick up slightly through the extended period even as temperatures keep falling- an interesting wrinkle worth watching, though there’s still no rain showing up anywhere in the forecast data to back up a wetter pattern at all.

Impacts:

Air quality alert active today and Friday- smoke from nearby fires remains thick enough to matter as much as the heat across the region

Triple-digit territory possible in spots- heat illness risk is real both today and tomorrow across Central Oregon

Smoke may be the bigger reason to stay inside- kids, older adults, and anyone with respiratory issues should take today and Friday seriously regardless of temperature

Bone-dry conditions continue- no rain anywhere in sight across the region through the middle of next week. This coupled with a breeze (each afternoon) leads to critical fire danger.

Real relief starts Saturday- not just a one-day dip, but a genuine multi-day cooldown

Comfortable temperatures return by the middle of next week- 80s instead of 90s-plus, and it’ll feel like it across Central Oregon

Final Thoughts:

Today and tomorrow are two days with big headlines across the region- it’s not just the heat, it’s the smoke stacking right on top of it. Saturday’s your turning point, and from there, Central Oregon is on a genuine glide path back toward comfortably warm, still dry, late-summer weather.

Thursday is shaping up to be the hottest day of the stretch, with most of Central Oregon expected to top out in the mid-upper 90s and some triple digits. A strong ridge of high pressure has been building and is set to hit full strength before easing its grip heading into this weekend. Wednesday is already bringing more heat with temperatures expected to top out in the 90s- And, this is just the setup. Thursday and Friday are the main event. All the while, there is no relief or rain on the way. Very dry conditions will continue with PM winds becoming breezy at times and smoke. A lot of smoke will linger over the High Desert through the next several days with periods of clearing.

High resolution forecast model guidance shows a ridge of high pressure building in and strengthening through Thursday, pushing highs 8-12°F above normal. The overnight-to-afternoon temperature swing is widening as we go, too. That’s a sign of strong subsidence: sinking air under the ridge, few clouds and dry air overhead. No rain signal anywhere in the extended outlook.

Temperatures have been running 5° to 1\43° warmer than 24-hours ago, with afternoon highs mostly in the 90s and a few 80s/100s. This puts our high temperatures running in an unseasonably hot range (Average: Bend- 86/50 | Redmond 89/49) for early August.

The Big Picture:

High pressure is holding firm over Central Oregon, keeping few clouds in the sky as temperatures climb steadily rather than spiking and crashing- a signature of a ridge building and strengthening overhead rather than a short-lived heat spike. Winds stay light and diurnal, shifting from south/Southeast in the mornings to Northwest by evening, with no fronts or disturbances in the picture. Dry conditions persist through the entire extended period, with zero measurable precipitation anywhere in the data through August 12th.

A 500mb ridge axis continues building over the Great Basin/PNW. This is the primary forcing mechanism for our weather pattern. It is consistent with the steady day-over-day max temp increase (low-mid 90s Wed → upper 90s Thu) rather than a transient short-wave-driven temperature jump. Surface wind fields show the expected diurnal thermal signature- NW-South flow overnight, shifting to Northwest by each afternoon. During the next few days, heating continues. Dewpoints holding in the low-to-mid 30s throughout suggests minimal moisture advection into the column; no indication of any moisture return through these first two weeks of August.

What’s Next?

This afternoon brings more heat with highs in the 90s and a few 80s. Some triple digits are not out of the question for both Bend and Redmond or some of our lower elevations in Jefferson/Crook counties. This is all while we remain under mostly clear skies. Tonight cools off nicely, with lows dropping into the mid-50s in Redmond and upper 50s in Bend, before tomorrow’s sharp jump into the peak heating.

The rest of this week will bring more heat with the start of a modest “cooling trend” as we go into this weekend- typical of a dry adiabatic environment under strong subsidence with minimal boundary-layer moisture to buffer overnight radiative cooling. RH recovery to 44-51% overnight will be consistent with radiational cooling under little to no cloud cover, rather than any advective moisture increase.

Let’s Take This Day by Day:

Thursday- The hottest day of the stretch. Highs will be in the mid-upper 90s with a few triple digits possible. Mostly clear (outside of the smoke) with the potential for some afternoon cloud buildup. Winds pick up a touch during the PM and swing around to the NW, with gusts near 20 mph possible.

Friday- A modest step-down from Thursday’s peak, and still hot — Highs in the mid-upper 90s with a few triple digits, no rain in sight and critically dry conditions. Expect more of a light wind that could become breezy at times by the afternoon/evening- 5-15mph with gusts of 20+.

Saturday- Heat holds firm with highs well into the 90s for most of Central Oregon. Also, few clouds, more smoke and 0% chance of rain. South, becoming Northwest wind 5-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.

Extended Outlook:

The cooling trend continues gradually into next week. Sunday brings highs in the mid-upper 80s with a few 90s. By Monday/Tuesday, expect seasonable days, cooler nights and highs mostly in the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows also trend milder through the period, dropping into the upper 40s to mid-50s. No precipitation is in the forecast at any point through August 12th.

Overall -beyond Saturday-, the data shows a slow, steady cooldown. Roughly 1 to 5 degrees per day — which points to the ridge gradually weakening rather than collapsing all at once. Worth noting: dewpoints creep up slightly by the end of the extended window, which could hint at slightly more moisture working in later on, though there’s no rain signal to back that up yet.

Impacts:

Thursday and Friday carry the highest risk for heat-related illness- outdoor activity should be limited to early morning hours, with plenty of hydration and shade breaks for anyone working or recreating outside. Pets and anyone without reliable air conditioning need extra attention during this stretch. With sustained heat and no rainfall in the extended data, fire weather conditions are worth continued monitoring. Also, smoke is a big impact driver as long as nearby fires continue to burn.

Elevated fire weather risk Thursday- RH dropping to 8-14%, winds gusting near 20mph during peak heat

High heat illness risk Thursday-Saturday- outdoor activity best limited to early morning hours

Dry fuels compounding daily- zero rain signal in the entire 8-day forecast

Wide overnight-to-afternoon swings- up to 40°F daily range, plan for ool starts & hot afternoons

AC/hydration check-ins advised- for pets, elderly neighbors, and anyone without reliable cooling

No relief until next week- gradual/modest “cooldown” begins, but stays above normal into the weekend

Final Thoughts:

Thursday stands out as the day to plan around- the hottest of the week across Central Oregon. Relief comes gradually after that rather than all at once, with temperatures easing back into the mid-80s by the middle of next week. Dry conditions persist the entire way through our 7day planner.

Join us tonight for your full & most reliable forecast on Central Oregon Daily News on ABC at 5, 6 & 11pm and on CBS at 5, 6,7 & 11.

After a brief “cool-down”, the heat is roaring back into Central Oregon this week- and smoke is riding in right along with it. An Air Quality Alert is in effect for Deschutes, Crook, Jefferson, Wasco, Wheeler and surrounding counties as northeast winds push wildfire smoke into the region. After today’s cool and smoky start, some improvement is expected and will be driven by wind speed and direction.

Today itself is comfortable, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, but by Thursday we’re talking at or above some triple digits- and in the lower elevations around Madras and Warm Springs, extreme heat is a real possibility. I would not be surprised if a series of heat advisories was issued by the NWS during the next few days. Humidity is dropping right along with it, bottoming out in the low teens and single digits by Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

There is a likely (>90%) confidence in both the moderate heat risk buildup and the persistence of the regional smoke/haze pattern through midweek- this isn’t a marginal signal, it’s a well-agreed-upon setup across forecast model guidance and regional forecasters.

Temperatures have been running 5° to 10° warmer than 24-hours ago, with afternoon highs mostly in the 80s and a few 90s. This kept our high temperatures running in a seasonable range (Average: Bend- 86/50 | Redmond 89/49) for early August.

The Big Picture:

High pressure is building back over the Pacific Northwest after last week’s brief break, and this high will be the dominant feature that will drive our weather pattern through at least the middle of next week. That means a steady heating trend through Thursday, bone-dry air working in behind it, and essentially zero chance of rain anywhere through the extended outlook. Winds will become breezy at times- nothing like the gusty pattern we saw over the weekend. But the combination of climbing heat and dropping humidity is exactly the kind of setup that keeps fire weather a daily concern here.

The ridge axis tracks directly overhead Thursday into Friday before the pattern relaxes into a more zonal/quasi-zonal flow with tighter pressure gradients- that’s the mechanism behind winds picking back up late week, not a frontal passage. Poor nocturnal mixing under the ridge is also what’s holding smoke near the surface instead of letting it vent. This same shift away from thermal ridging will allow for a cooling trend. Modest at first, highs will cool back into the 80s by this weekend.

What’s Next?

Expect a three-day run-up to the hottest weather of the stretch on Thursday. Then, our incoming gradual cooldown into the weekend and early next week. Relative humidity will be the bigger story for anyone tracking fire behavior. We are looking at afternoon RH in the 10-15% range (with some single digits %) Wednesday and Thursday, which is critically dry even with winds only becoming breezy at times.

It is worth noting- thick smoke plumes can suppress daytime heating below guidance in the areas sitting under the densest smoke, so some spots may run a few degrees cooler than raw numbers suggest while clearer areas see the full effect of the ridge. Triple-digit heat for the Columbia Basin carries 70-80% confidence. Smoke will continue to impact our air quality while nearby fires continue to burn.

Let’s Take This Day by Day:

Today (Tuesday, 8/4)- A hazy start with poor air quality this morning as northeast winds push wildfire smoke into the region — an Air Quality Advisory is in effect. Otherwise it’s a comfortable, breezy day with cooling this evening. Our heating trend started to take shape. Highs 80s & a few 90s. Northwest wind 5-15mph with gusts of 20+ before tapering around/after sunset. Expect few clouds and PM humidity (%) drops into the high teens to upper 20s.

Wednesday (8/5)- The heating trend really kicks into gear. Highs in the low-mid 90s with some locations approaching the triple digits. Winds stay light out of the north and northwest, becoming breezy at times and shifting southwest by the evening. Humidity drops sharply, bottoming out around 10-12% with some single digits during the afternoon- our driest stretch of the week begins.

Thursday (8/6)- This is the hot one. With few clouds, highs will hit the upper 90s, with some triple digits. Morning winds are gentle and out of the north, shifting Northwest through the afternoon with gusts up to around 10-20 the afternoon/evening. Humidity stays critically low, in the 10-15% range with some single digits through the afternoon.

Friday (8/7)- The heating trend flattnes. Highs ease back into the low-to-mid 90s with no rain in sight and breezy afternoon winds. Expect little to no cloud cover.

This Weekend (Sat 8/8 & Sun 8/9)- The modest “cooling trend” begins. Highs ease back through the 90s and into the 80s by Sunday. Still critically dry, afternoon winds will become breezy at times and temperatures return to a seasonable range by Sunday/Monday.

Extended Outlook:

Beyond Monday, there’s no sign of any pattern change on the horizon- dry weather looks to continue with temperatures holding in the mid-to-upper 80s, early next week. Keep an eye on any updates heading into the following weekend, since a full week-plus of dry, warm weather this time of year tends to set the stage for renewed fire weather concerns even without a wind event. Bottom line- fuels are dry/cured, RH is critically low and PM winds are still breezy for many. Any fires that start are likely to spread rapidly.

The pattern shift to zonal/quasi-zonal flow with tighter gradients late week is the feature to track beyond Friday- This is the type of setup that historically opens the door to wind-driven fire weather risk even after the heat itself backs off.

Impacts:

Two things to plan around this week: smoke and heat.

Air quality: Advisory active this morning until further notice- Deschutes, Crook, Jefferson, Wasco, Wheeler. NE winds, wildfire smoke. Sensitive groups: limit time outside. On-and-off through midweek.

Fire weather: RH down to 10-15% with some single digits Wed-Thu, fuels critically receptive, breezy afternoons. All of this is on top of highs near/above 100

Outdoor plans: Mornings only keeping smoke and areas of poor air quality in mind. Stay hydrated. Watch the AQI.

No relief: Dry through at least next week. Smoke and fire risk stick around.

Final Thoughts:

Enjoy today while it lasts- it is smoky... But it is also the most comfortable day until this weekend. Thursday is the one to plan around, with the hottest temperatures and driest air of the stretch. After that, temperatures ease off gradually through the weekend, but the dry pattern isn’t going anywhere.

Join us tonight for your full & most reliable forecast on Central Oregon Daily News on ABC at 5, 6 & 11pm and on CBS at 5, 6,7 & 11.

A warming and drying trend takes hold today after Sunday’s calmer break, and it will build through the rest of the week. Temperatures climb back into the upper 80s and 90s, and afternoon relative humidity drops back into the low-to-mid teens — critically dry again. Winds today stay fairly light out of the northwest, but forecasters are already flagging Wednesday and Thursday as the next days to watch, with fire weather concerns building again mid-week. No Red Flag Warning is posted for Central Oregon this morning, but crews across the region are using today’s more moderate window to lock in the containment gains made over the weekend.

The headline this morning is progress: Rowe Creek, Bench and Akawa Butte all posted solid containment increases, and the Hay Creek Complex near Condon wrapped up entirely — Monday was its final daily update, with command handed back to local authorities. The Round Butte Fire, the new start from Saturday, remains the smallest but least-contained fire in the region and is now under a new incident management team.

Evacuation centers still open across the region:

-Sky Hawk Ranch – 6287 NE 33rd Street, Redmond OR 97756 (Large Animals) —Eastside Church – 3174 NE 3rd Street, Prineville OR 97754 (Evacuation Shelter)
-Humane Society Of The Ochocos – 1280 Tom McCall Road, Prineville OR 97754 (Companion Animal Shelter)
-St. Patrick Catholic Church – 341 SW J Street, Madras OR 97741 (Red Cross Emergency Shelter)
-The Old School Cafeteria – 1150 Warm Springs St, Warm Springs OR 97761 (Red Cross Emergency Shelter)
-Jefferson County Fairgrounds – 430 SW Fairgrounds Rd, Madras OR 97741 (Large Animals)
-Crane HS – 43277 Crane-Venator Rd, Crane OR 97732 (Harney – Evacuation Shelter, still housing displaced residents including a group of relocated nursing home residents)
-Maupin High School - 699 4th St, Maupin OR 97037 (Wasco - Evacuation Shelter)

Note: the Red Cross shelter at Sisters High School has closed as evacuation levels around the Akawa Butte Fire were significantly reduced and then lifted over the weekend.

Large animal sheltering for Crook County fires continues through the Crook County Sheriff’s Mounted Posse directly — call/text 541-233-7646 or email crookcountyposse@gmail.com for placement. (Note: the Crook County Fairgrounds is no longer being used as the large-animal shelter site — the Posse is coordinating multiple alternate locations.)

Road closures this morning are more serious than they were over the weekend:

-US-26, east of Prineville (Rowe Creek Complex): Closed again as of last night (Monday evening) for active wildfire operations — emergency personnel only. This is a step back from Sunday’s caution-advisory status; check tripcheck.com before heading out. US-26, MP 40–53 & 83–97.8 (Prineville–Mitchell/Shingle Fire area): Remains open, but expect fire crews and equipment on/near the highway. Highway 26 first reopened July 31 and has held open through most of the weekend aside from last night’s closure east of Prineville.

-US-20, Burns to Vale (Coleman Creek/Second Flat fires): Open, but conditions can change quickly given active fire behavior nearby — use caution.

-US-26, MP 104.5–110 (near Madras/Round Butte Fire): Wildfire mop-up nearby; watch for fire equipment entering/exiting the highway. Evacuation notices are as far East as (and including Level-2) for Jefferson Ave/SW Culver Hwy-316 for the Round Butte Fire.

-Black Canyon Wilderness (Ochoco National Forest): Hard closure remains in effect. Ochoco National Forest & Crooked River National Grassland: Emergency fire closure area remains in effect around the Bench, Round Butte and Shingle fires. John Day Fossil Beds National Monument: Units remain closed.

Always check tripcheck.com immediately before traveling “Know Before You Go” — conditions on US-26 in particular have flipped from caution advisory to hard closure and back within the past 24 hours.

Please be aware- When WatchDuty cleared Deschutes/Jefferson evacuation notices for the Akawa Butte Fire, they also (inadvertently) cleared Jefferson county evacuation notices for The Bench, Round Butte and Rowe Creek CPX Fires too. The best source for evacuation notices is from the actual source, each county’s respective sheriff’s office. You can also use the RAPTOR map (https://arcg.is/14SaSe2) or each county’s evacuation map.

Also, there are no evacuation notices that are in effect for Deschutes, Klamath or Lake Counties.

Here’s where the region’s fires stand this morning:

The Rowe Creek Complex (Crook/Jefferson/Wheeler) is up to 323,951 acres and 60% contained, a solid jump from 55% on Sunday. Fire growth Saturday was less than predicted despite Saturday’s strong winds & Red Flag Warning, and firelines held in most locations. The fire did push about 3,500 acres uphill near East Fork Mill Creek Sunday night, producing a visible smoke column, with spotting up to a half mile observed overnight. Crews are now shifting some resources toward the Mill Creek Wilderness area while continuing to chip fuels along US-26 to keep the fire from crossing the highway. With the threat to structures significantly reduced, the Oregon State Fire Marshal has begun scaling back structural task forces on the complex. All levels of evacuation notices are still in effect for Crook/Jefferson/Wheeler counties with significant improvement.

-Wheeler, all Level-3 notices have been lifted Levels 2 & 1 evacuation notices are in place between Mitchell (Level-1) to Fossil there is a series of level-2 notices including for the Camel Hump Fire.

-Jefferson/Crook All levels of evacuation notices are noticeably in effect. However, there has been a lot of improvement around population centers, including Prineville as the main fire line and hotspot zone moves East through northern Crook County and eastern Jefferson county.

The #BenchFire in Jefferson County on the CTWS reservation is at 67,238 acres and 66% contained — up from 57% Sunday and 47% Saturday, continued strong progress. Crews are holding and reinforcing lines around the perimeter and mopping up the north/northwest side.

On the Warm Springs Reservation, all evacuations have been relaxed to a Level-1 notice. South of the Metolius River (west JeffCO) there is a series of Level 3, 2 & 1 evacuations including along the southern edge of the East/West portion of Lake Billy Chinook (Level-1).

Jefferson county still has a series of Level-3 (south/West of US 26 between the highway and the Deschutes River) and Level-2/1 notices around the outer edge of the Level 3 notice.

The #RoundButteFire, still the newest and least-contained fire in the region, is at 1,090 acres and 7% contained. Southwest Area Incident Management Team 4 (also managing the Bench Fire) formally took command Monday morning. Crews are building containment lines and mopping up, with today’s forecast bringing gusts up to 20mph and humidity in the teens on this fire specifically — one to watch as the warming/drying trend builds. This fire is responsible for prompting its own set of Level-3, 2 & 1 evacuation notices between hwy-361 and Lake Billy Chinook/Deschutes river, including Metolius, SW Belmont Lane, SW Mountain View Dr, and areas north of Culver.

The #AkawaButteFire is at 27,491 acres (85% contained) — essentially flat from Sunday, with the acreage bump coming from more accurate interior mapping rather than new fire growth. Crews are strengthening contingency lines near Black Butte and Green Ridge and shifting into suppression-repair mode. Indian Ford Road has reopened, though drivers should still yield to fire traffic.

In Crook County, the #CoyoteFire (about 17,448 acres, 89% contained) and #HenryFire (about 29,889 acres, 83% contained) remain confined to their existing footprints with no growth expected outside the established perimeter — crews are now focused on interior smoldering. Resources freed up from those two fires have shifted to the #ShingleFire (Wheeler- 70,551 acres and 31% contained), which continues to make gains: the Birch Creek area on the northeast side was called contained Sunday, and crews are securing dozer line between Day Creek and Home Sweet Home Spring to protect Dayville. There is still a series of Level 1/2 evacuation notices in effect for the Coyote & Henry Fires.

The Hay Creek Complex (Wasco/Gilliam/Sherman/Wheeler) is 200,292 acres, 98% contained and essentially wrapped up: Little Buck Fire is 43,818 acres (89% contained), while the Cottonwood, Porcupine Ridge, Hoag and Hopkin fires are all 100% contained. Monday was the final daily update from the incident management team, with the remaining Little Buck perimeter now handed to local authorities for point protection and patrol.

In the Burns Basin (Harney/Malheur counties), the #ColemanCreekFire is at 276,038 acres and 33% contained — a jump from 0% over the weekend as crews build direct and indirect lines and bring in smokejumpers to reach the fire’s remote eastern flank near Lake Owyhee. The priority remains keeping the fire south of Highway 20 and within its existing footprint. In several locations, this fire has come right up to the highway without jumping the corridor so far.

There is a series of Level 2, 3 & 1 evacuation notices that are in effect for Malheur County between the county line and the Warm Springs Reservoir, along/south of US20 to (and including) Owyhee Lake. Within Harney county, this fire still has some Level 1 & 2 notices.

The #SecondFlatFire holds around 105,462 acres (55% contained). A series of Level 1, 2 & 3 evacuation notices remains in effect, including Levels 1/2 in and around Burns and Hines. Level 3 notices are now North & NE of Bald Butte.

Bottom line for today: the region banked real containment progress over the weekend, and today’s calmer winds give crews one more good day to build on it before conditions trend back to breezy afternoons, drier and hotter again Wednesday and Thursday. US-26 east of Prineville is the closure to watch most closely this morning — it flipped back to a hard closure overnight after being open through the weekend.

All evacuation zones and fire data: Oregon’s RAPTOR page https://arcg.is/K8Lb8

Road closures: tripcheck.com

The air is cool, the sky is mostly clear, and for a little while- it almost feels like the afternoon heat isn’t coming. We are starting g this first week of August with smoke in the air and this cool feel will not last for too long. Sunshine will once again take over, sending temperatures into the lower 80s with some 70s this afternoon. It is going to be another dry, pleasant summer day across the High Desert.

If you’ve been enjoying the unseasonably cool days, they are about to wrap up. So take it in the next few days.

Today and Tuesday offer some of the most comfortable afternoons of the week before temperatures begin heating into the 90s again by Wednesday. It’s not an extreme warm-up, but it’s enough to remind us that August has officially taken over. High pressure keeps the reins across the West, nudging highs back through the upper 80s and into the 90s later this week while keeping rain chances out of the picture.

The atmosphere isn’t changing much and some smoke is in the air. Expect cool mornings, warmer afternoons, low humidity, and plenty of sunshine to continue this week. The main variables we’ll continue watching are that fire activity and wildfire smoke, which can still affect visibility and air quality depending on where the wind decides to carry it.

🌤️ Looking Ahead

Today: Few clouds and comfortable with afternoon highs into the lower 80s.

Tuesday: Another beautiful summer day. Heating takes shape with no rain in sight. Mid-upper 80s.

Wednesday: Sunshine continues as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and into the 90s.

Have a great Monday, and enjoy the sunshine.

Yesterday’s Red Flag Warning is behind us, and today is your best weather day of the week. Sunday will be pleasantly cooler and calmer than Saturday- enjoy it, because it doesn’t last.

Today: The Coolest Day of the Stretch

Highs in the 70s with some 80s, under plenty of sunshine with winds finally easing back to light and only becoming breezy at times After late-week heat, wind, and Red Flag conditions (Saturday), today is the payoff- genuinely comfortable, lower fire weather risk, and a great day to be outside without fighting the elements.

Looking Into Next Week: Heat’s Coming Back, and It’s Not Subtle. But don’t get too comfortable. Starting Monday, our next heating trend takes shape:

Monday: 80s and some upper 70s
Tuesday: Mid- upper 80s
Wednesday: Low-to-mid 90s
Thursday/Friday: Holding nearly as hot, with no rain in sight and very dry as unseasoable heat continues- 90s

That’s a roughly 15-degree jump from today’s high to Wednesday’s, in just four days. No rain shows up anywhere in the extended forecast, so this heat builds on already-dry ground and vegetation. It is worth keeping fire weather awareness on your radar even without an active warning right now.

The Bottom Line:

Today is the exception, not the trend. Get outside, enjoy the calm and the cooler air, and start planning ahead for a serious heat push by the middle of next week.

Have a great Sunday, Central Oregon

Central Oregon gets a breather today. Yesterday’s PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Red Flag Warning has expired, and today brings calmer winds as cooling continues. The best fire-weather day we’ve had in over a week. It is still very dry and PM RH (Relative Humidity %) values will be running a good 10 points higher, bottoming out in the 20s with some teens. Winds will not be as strong, running 5-15mph with gusts of 20+ by this afternoon. That said, crews are still working hard across a dozen-plus active incidents, including one brand-new fire that sparked yesterday afternoon.

New from yesterday (Sat 8/1): the #RoundButteFire. It ignited Saturday afternoon on the south side of Round Butte, about 5 miles west/southwest of Madras (and just to the west of Metolius) in Jefferson County. It grew quickly in yesterday’s wind — from 50-100 acres to an estimated 1,200 acres by evening — before decreasing helped moderate activity overnight. No official containment percentage yet. The Jefferson County Sheriff’s Office has evacuations in place: Level 3 “Go Now” for the area west of Metolius extending to the Deschutes River, Level 2 “Be Set” for the city of Metolius, and Level 1 “Be Ready” for NW 10.

Evacuation centers still open across the region:

-Pole Creek Ranch – 15425 McKenzie Hwy-126, Sisters OR 97759 (Large Animals)
-Sky Hawk Ranch – 6287 NE 33rd Street, Redmond OR 97756 (Large Animals)
-Eastside Church – 3174 NE 3rd Street, Prineville OR 97754 (Evacuation Shelter)
-Humane Society Of The Ochocos – 1280 Tom McCall Road, Prineville OR 97754 (Companion Animal Shelter)
-St. Patrick Catholic Church – 341 SW J Street, Madras OR 97741 (Red Cross Emergency Shelter)
-The Old School Cafeteria – 1150 Warm Springs St, Warm Springs OR 97761 (Red Cross Emergency Shelter)
-Jefferson County Fairgrounds – 430 SW Fairgrounds Rd, Madras OR 97741 (Large Animals)
-Maupin High School – 699 4th Street, Maupin OR 97037 (Wasco – Evacuation Shelter)
-Crane High School Dorms – 43277 Crane-Venator Rd, Crane OR 97732 (Harney – Evacuation Shelter)

Large animal sheltering for Crook County fires still runs through the Crook County Sheriff’s Mounted Posse directly — call/text 541-233-7646 or email crookcountyposse@gmail.com for placement.

Good News: There are no hard-closures this morning on Central Oregon’s main routes. US-20 and US-26 are both reopen with caution advisories only.

-US-20, MP 154–223 (west of Drewsey Road): Wildfire nearby (Coleman Creek/Second Flat), downgraded from closure this morning. Burns to Vale. No delay expected, but use caution- this is downgraded from a hard closure as of this morning.

-US-26, MP 40–53 & 83–97.8 (Prineville–Mitchell): Wildfire nearby (Rowe Creek Complex). Highway 26, Prineville to Mitchell, reopened Thursday evening (7/30) and has held open through the weekend.

-US-26, MP 104.5–110 (near Madras): Wildfire nearby, (Round Butte Fire). Watch for fire equipment entering/exiting the highway.

Note: There is still a hard closure within the Black Canyon Wilderness of the Ochoco National Forest.

Here’s where the rest of the region’s fires stand this morning:

The Rowe Creek Complex (Crook/Jefferson/Wheeler) holds at 313,439 acres and 55% contained. Command officially transitions this morning at 6am to Southwest Area Incident Management Team 2 and OSFM Blue Team. During the last 24 hours, most of the wildfire activity was contained to northern Crook County as strong west winds accelerated fire spread to the East, through the Ochocos in the area of East Fork Mill Creek. This pushes the main hotspots closer to US26 in rugged terrain. Although, there were still some hotspots NW of Prineville and North of the Ochoco Reservoir.

The #AkawaButteFire- 27,429 acres (85% contained). Crews had a strong day with this big jump in containment. There were not many satellite derived hotspots to speak of.

The #BenchFire in Jefferson County on the CTWS reservation is at 67,229 acres and 57% contained. Crews are continuing steady progress on containment from 47% yesterday. This morning, evacuation zones from the Bench Fire are running close to those from the Round Butte Fire.

In Crook County, the #CoyoteFire sits at 17,477 acres and 77% contained, and the #HenryFire is at 29,889 acres and 75% contained — both stable enough that resources are now shifting to help the #ShingleFire, which stands at 67,416 acres and 10% contained. More good news on these 2 Crook County fires- evacuation zones continue to relax a series of Level-1 & Level-1 evacuation notices in and around each respective fire perimeter.

Good news out of Wasco/Gilliam counties: the Hay Creek Complex, which includes the Little Buck Fire, has reached 98% containment at 200,292 acres — essentially wrapped up. The #LittleBuckFire is now at 43,8118 acres (89% contained) and there are no recent satellite derived hotspots to speak of. Current evacuation notices in SE Wasco county are mostly Level-1 (including Antelope and Shaniko) with a single Level-2, west of Antelope.

In the Burns Basin, the #ColemanCreek Fire (Harney/Malheur counties) is at 264,839 acres and 0% contained. Most of the satellite derived hotspots are visible in Malheur County, well to the Southwest of Vale and East of Owyhee Lake, East of Monument. The #SecondFlatFire holds at 105,983 acres and 20% contained. For these two Harney County fires, a series of Level-1, Level-2 & Level-3 remains in effect. Level-3 evacuation notices are in place East of Hines and North of Burns.

Bottom line for today: it’s a good day to catch your breath, but the Round Butte Fire is the one to watch closely given how new and fast-moving it was Saturday (8/1).

All evacuation zones and fire data: Oregon’s RAPTOR page https://arcg.is/K8Lb8

Road closures: tripcheck.com

Here's where the fires themselves stand this morning:

The Rowe Creek Complex (Crook/Jefferson/Wheeler) has grown to 313,439 acres and is now 57% contained — solid progress from yesterday's 52%. Crews are using the calmer window before today's wind event to hold and strengthen lines, particularly along Highway 26 and around Cherry Creek. Evacuation zones near Prineville remain largely unchanged since the Level-3 increase north of US26 around Ochoco Reservoir, Friday PM. Yesterday, there was also the addition of a Level-1 evacuation notice south/east of the E. Ochoco Hwy-US26 from the Ochoco Reservoir to Ochoco Creek road.

The #BenchFire in Jefferson County has grown to roughly 67,229 acres and containment has jumped to 47%, a strong improvement as crews take advantage of the window before today's winds arrive. Evacuation zones are largely unchanged since the big changes, Friday morning.

The #AkawaButteFire, straddling Jefferson and Deschutes counties, is holding around 27,429 acres with containment at 62%. Crews continue deepening the perimeter around Indian Ford Road and the Crooked River National Grassland. Level-1 and Level-2 evacuation zones are now all East of US20 and out of Sisters, as far sough as Henkle Butte. These have been revised and improved since yesterday. Only 6 Deschutes county zones are still at level 3, within and around the fire perimeter. The rest have relaxed.

In Crook County, the #CoyoteFire is holding at 17,477 acres and 77% contained, and the #HenryFire is essentially steady at 29,889 acres and 70% contained — both fires continue to allow evacuation downgrades as mop-up progresses. The #ShingleFire (Wheeler/Grant/Crook) remains around 67,415 acres and 10% contained. For all three of these fires, evacuation zones remain largely unchanged.

In Wasco County, the good news is the Hay Creek Complex has pushed to 98% containment, with the #LittleBuckFire as its last active piece 43,818 ac (89% contained) and most evacuation zones are Level-1/Level-2.
The #GrasshopperFire NW of Maupin is a different story. 26,306 acres with no containment reported. This fire is burning hot on the North and West flanks. Evacuation zones for Wasco county are largely unchanged. However there are no Level-1, 2 & 3 evacuation notices in place through southern Hood River county.

In the Burns Basin (Harney/Malheur Counties) the #ColemanCreek Fire has grown to roughly 231,578 acres and remains at 0% containment, still pushing through Juntura and the surrounding area with Level 3 evacuations active. The #SecondFlatFire is at 105,983 acres and 18% contained. Last night's community meeting in Burns covered both fires — check the 2026 Burns Basin Facebook page for a recap if you missed it.

Bottom line for today: today's Red Flag Warning is the headline. If you're anywhere near active fire terrain, have the car packed and a go-bag ready and stay tuned to official channels through the afternoon and evening. Remember that WatchDuty is a helpful tool but does not always have the most up to date, official information.

All evacuation zones and most fire data can be found on the state of Oregon's RAPTOR page: https://arcg.is/1juyb0
Check road closures around these fires at tripcheck.com